Bihar’s big parties harden stand with allies

JD(U), BJP and RJD unwilling to give in to whims of smaller partners in run-up to assembly polls

Amitabh Srivastava, Patna: In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Bihar’s three main political parties—Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), Lalu Prasad’s RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and the BJP—yielded seats to their smaller partners to keep their electoral alliances going. Of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats, allies BJP and JD(U) agreed to contest just 17 seats each, offering six seats to Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP (Lok Janshakti Party). This was the smallest number of seats Nitish’s party had ever contested in the state. The BJP contested eight seats less than the 25 it did in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

The RJD made even bigger compromises. It contested 19 Lok Sabha seats, its lowest ever, to accommodate alliance partners—Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) or HAM(S), Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).

A year on, with Bihar set to witness an assembly election (243 seats) around October, it is the smaller parties that are facing the heat because the JD(U), BJP and RJD appear unwilling to give in to their whims. The parties cut to size include not only constituents of the opposition grand alliance, who failed to win a single seat in the last Lok Sabha poll, but even the LJP, which had won all its six Lok Sabha seats.

In the 2015 assembly election, among the NDA constituents, the BJP contested 157 seats and won 53, the LJP contested 42 and won two, the RLSP contested 23 and won two, whereas HAM(S) contested 21, winning one seat. In the grand alliance, the RJD contested 101, winning 80, the JD(U) contested 101 and won 71 whereas the Congress contested 41, winning 27.

In 2020, the JD(U) is part of the NDA whereas HAM(S) and RLSP are in the grand alliance. Though the NDA is yet to declare its seat-sharing arrangement for the assembly election, things are likely to go as per Union home minister Amit Shah’s declaration about Nitish being the leader of alliance in Bihar. Shah’s comment, made during his June 7 virtual rally, was also seen as a strong disapproval of LJP chief Chirag Paswan’s statement that his party will support the “BJP’s choice of NDA leadership in Bihar”. According to a senior JD(U) leader, Chirag’s remark was not only an “unnecessary digression” from the NDA’s established position about Nitish being the alliance leader in Bihar, but was also a “clear attempt to get additional seats by arm-twisting an alliance partner”.

Says a JD(U) minister from Bihar: “The LJP is clearly hoping to punch above its weight. Chirag Paswan is clearly mistaken if he thinks he can browbeat the JD(U) in Bihar. He should first assess his party’s worth in the state.”

Another senior JD(U) leader said that seat distribution for the Lok Sabha and assembly polls have different yardsticks. “In the 2015 assembly poll, the LJP won only two seats. In the 2010 poll, the LJP contested 75 seats in alliance with the RJD, but won only three. They have never done well in Bihar assembly polls,” he said.

Relations between the JD(U) and LJP have soured so much that it may require the intervention of LJP founder Ram Vilas Paswan to mend things. But Paswan is yet to step in. Perhaps, he is letting his son handle the matter with the BJP. On July 1, when BJP national general secretary Bhupendra Yadav met Nitish in Patna, no LJP leader was present. It is clear that having Nitish as a partner is the BJP’s topmost priority in Bihar. As of now, the JD(U) and BJP appear to have agreed to finalise the seat distribution between them. Once this is formalised, the BJP is expected to offer LJP some seats from its quota.

In the opposition ranks, the story is no less worrisome for the smaller parties. Manjhi, a former Bihar chief minister and president of HAM(S), has been issuing veiled threats to the RJD, asking Tejashwi Yadav to set up a coordination committee—seen as a pressure tactic to get a higher number of seats. While Manjhi has continued to issue one ultimatum after another, the RJD has refused to take note of it.

If Manjhi stands cornered in the grand alliance, the other smaller parties are also in a quandary. In the general election last year, the RJD had expected to gain Kushwaha votes from the RLSP, Mallah votes from VIP and Dalit votes from HAM(S), but the three parties performed miserably, failing to win a single seat.

Not just the 2019 Lok Sabha election, HAMS(S) and RLSP performed poorly in the 2015 assembly poll as well. While the two parties were NDA allies in 2015, they switched over to the grand alliance camp for the 2019 Lok Sabha election—a decision that did not pay any dividend.

For the forthcoming assembly poll, Tejashwi appears to have switched to a ‘Do It Yourself’ strategy. The RJD is likely to contest at least 150 seats. RJD sources said Tejashwi may even consider sealing the alliance with just the Congress and Left parties. “The RJD is unwilling to pander to the whims of the smaller parties. The RJD contested just 19 Lok Sabha seats last time, in order to accommodate the smaller parties. However, it’s time for a strategy shift,” says a senior RJD leader, adding: “We will contest at least 150 assembly seats. The message to the smaller allies is clear—accept whatever we offer or go your own way.”