।। Alaul Alam ।।
The previous pandemics have taught us that a series of waves may hit hard the different parts of the population after an initial decrease of a pandemic. The Covid-19 is not an exception to this as some countries have already witnessed the dire consequence of the second wave. Some other even are undergoing the third or fourth wave of the pandemic.
Though there is no scientific definition of the second wave of coronavirus, except that the infection comes down to a minimum level and then rises again. According to medical science, the term ‘second wave’ refers to a resurgence of infection after an initial decrease.
In Bangladesh context it is true that we have not crossed the first stage yet though the number of people infected has noticeably dropped. The experts opine that until the transmission rate reaches below 5 percent, it is quite tough to say the first phase is over.
So, how can we assume that we are entering the second wave of Covid-19? It matters not whether we are now in the first or second wave but the concern is: we are going to face winter wave that may add another blow to the existing one with a heavy toll of lives.
China, the epicenter of the pandemic was already hit by the second resurgence of the virus. Not only China, New Zealand, Germany, South Korea and many more countries underwent the second wave after the virus came under control.
On top of that, countries across Europe are seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases after successfully slowing the outbreak early in the year. For example, France, UK, Poland, the Netherlands and Spain are now in the second wave and have started taking action to curb it. Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Montenegro, North Macedonia may be the other examples, who combated a lot to tackle the second wave.
South Korea was the first country in the world to announce that they had formally entered a second wave of infections, but they managed to bring the cases under control.
There is much debate over the issue that whether colder climate is likely to be more potent to cause more resurgence than the moderate one in spreading the virus.
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have come out with new findings that suggest rising temperatures accelerate the spread of the virus. Another paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that the virus acted in a way consistent with the behaviour of a seasonal respiratory virus spreading along with temperature and humidity levels.
In Bangladesh the spread of coronavirus has declined to an optimal scale though there is opinion that if the number of test is increased, the number of cases would also increase. No matter, we can come to a conclusion that the wrecking of Covid-19 is not as was thought by the experts in Bangladesh.
Despite our success in containing the virus, we are not free from danger as the winter is coming and there is chance that winter may see an increase in cases and more fatalities. Experts opine that in winter, pneumonia and other asthmatic cases rise, and that may complicate the ongoing Covid-19 crisis causing a heavy toll of lives.
According to the Directorate General of Health Services, around one and half lakh people suffered from acute respiratory infections last winter. Many are saying the situation could worsen this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Truly, things would get tougher to manage if people are indifferent to maintaining health guidelines. Now the pertinent question is: were the people of the country defiant to follow health guidelines issued by the WHO and the government? No doubt the concerned authorities of the country were respectful to the WHO safety guidelines.
However, a field-level monitoring to enforce compliance with safety guidelines was seriously lacking. But creating an overall awareness among people was also a challenge.
Experts worry that any relaxation in regard to maintaining health safety could be drastic, and it can cause thousands of deaths in winter and the situation may be out of control in many cases.
Considering the fact, the prime minister instructed the people concerned to take precautions for dealing with different cold-related diseases. She especially gave instructions to take precautions in case the country witnesses a second wave of Covid-19 transmission.
It is no denying that the first time the world was totally unprepared to tackle the pandemic. Can we not learn the lessons from the first wave to tackle the series of waves? Surely, we have learnt many lessons that could be helpful to combat the second wave of the virus though there is no single measure or tactic that has made the difference but the combination of all may have a positive response in containment.
Many experts are of the opinions that the devastation of the consecutive waves could be more drastic than the first wave. Lockdowns brought the pandemic under control somewhat but test and trace was the key. Experts also suggest that it is mandatory to follow health guidelines to check mortalities.
To this end the national and local agencies should work together to combat the Covid-19 crisis and the focus should be on those who are socioeconomically deprived and vulnerable people until an effective vaccine arrives.
The writer teaches at Prime University. Email: malaulalam@gmail.com
